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Thursday, September 17, 2009

Money Management

What is the most important thing in money management?
It is to produce positive expectancy.

How do we achieve that?
Easy, profits must be greater than losses for one of the followings

i) a set time interval .. daily, weekly or monthly etc, or
ii) a set number of trades.

That requires historic performance or projected performance. Win:loss money value ratio and winning trade % are required to calculate expectancy of a method.

When a new method or system is launched, there is no reliable performance data to be used as a benchmark. Backtesting can be done, but it is too idealistic as it lacks human factor in the equation. Therefore, the money management frameworks tends to be geared towards ideal situation and a trader may find it hard to copy that in real live trading.

The irony is that without no reliable performance data, money management framework can't be formulated. It's like a bit of chicken and egg situation. So how do we do that?

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